Sebastian Baez will face JJ Wolf at the 2023 ATP Stockholm tennis event in a match that will be coming up soon. The match will be a round-of-32 match in the tournament, one that is also known as the 2023 BNP Paribas Nordic Open. Both players have been moderately active on tour lately. However, each has had trouble putting together the match wins that are required to stay alive in draws. My Baez vs Wolf prediction is that the former will win at least one set in this upcoming match (about 7 AM ET on Tuesday morning).
Order of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Baez vs Wolf Head-to-Head Series
These two players do not have a head-to-head history. Those looking for an angle on this match will need to consider the short-term form between the two players. Baez heads into the match as the World No. 28 while Wolf is the World No. 58, meaning that the former player has been a lot more impressive over the last 52 weeks.
Baez was in the Shanghai draw last week. He managed a first-round win over a peripheral player on tour. In the second round, Baez faced Jannik Sinner. Despite taking a set, Baez never really came close to winning as the final two sets were not competitive. It was a disappointing result for the Argentine as Sinner entered Shanghai following a heavy workload in the week prior. He was very ripe for the pickings. Baez also has a loss to a player ranked outside of the top 100 in a recent event, a result that should be making bettors raise an eyebrow.
Wolf, Baez’s opponent, performed well in Shanghai. He took out three players to make the round of sixteen before falling to Ugo Humbert. Wolf defeated Matteo Arnaldi and Cameron Norrie in the Shanghai draw. All of his matches took three sets but he has had some days off since falling in Shanghai. At the age of 24, Wolf probably will have recovered from his efforts.
The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the 2023 BNP Paribas Nordic Open
Baez vs Wolf Prediction: Baez to win a set
Stockholm is a small enough event that either one of these players could emerge as a contender. What really stands out with this match is that Wolf is coming in as the favorite at -200 (bet365). For a difference of 30 positions in the rankings, you would expect Baez to be the favorite. It seems that bettors and oddsmakers are wise to the situation: Wolf has played better lately than Baez even if the big picture of the 52-week period that factors into rankings says something different.
Yet, the match calls for a bet on Baez to win at least one set at -163 (bet365). In taking that, you could note Wolf’s record in Shanghai: he LOST at least one set in all four of his matches. It’s not that Wolf is blowing opponents out of the building.
In backing Baez, you are partly hoping that he gets back to some decent tennis. He is a Top 30 player so that’s not a shot in the dark by any stretch. Also, he took a set off of Sinner — who is the World No. 4. But even if Baez is subpar, he can be expected to hang with a player that’s barely in the Top 60. You certainly won’t feel like your bet is dangling out there with no hope.
Additional reading: NFL LIVE POWER RANKINGS
