Former World No. 1 Andy Murray will face French veteran Benoit Paire at the 2024 ATP Montpellier tennis tournament soon. This will be a first-round match in the Grand Slam tournament, which is also known as the 2024 Open Sud De France. Murray is coming in as a moderate to large favorite, priced at -350 on the moneyline. My Murray vs Paire prediction is that the latter player will win UNDER 10.5 games in the match at -120.
Schedule of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Andy Murray vs Benoit Paire Head-to-Head Series
The Murray vs Paire h2h series dates back to 2015. Murray is 4-0 against Paire but they have not faced one another since the 2021 season. In all of their matches, Paire has only managed to take down one set and that was on clay. ATP Montpellier is an indoor/hard-court event. Murray is 9-1 in the sets played over the years with a straight sets win from the Hopman Cup being their only hard-court match.
Murray has mainly been a non-factor on the tour lately. He went out in the first round of the Australian Open earlier this month, losing in straight sets. He went 1-1 in the Kooyong Classic but only beat a slumping Dominic Thiem. In Brisbane, Murray fell in the first round. The same went for Paris last season.
Paire enters the match ranked outside of the Top 100 on tour. However, he is playing in a home-country tournament. Lately, Paire has been making a living on the challenger circuit. He will be looking to win some matches in Montpellier to try and make his way back into the main draws of tour-level events.
Paire enters Montpellier behind three straight losses. He went out in the first round of qualifying at the Australian Open. He followed that up with two losses in two challenger events. In one of the matches he was almost -200 on the moneyline so the oddsmakers appear to be overrating him a bit (bet365).
The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the 2024 Open Sud De France
Murray vs Paire Prediction: Paire UNDER 10.5 games
The best bet in this match is to go against Paire in the “Player Games Won” market. He is at 10.5 and odds of -120 on the UNDER. I have trouble picturing him forcing a tiebreaker or winning a set in this match. Even 5-7, 5-7 against Murray would be a decent showing for Paire but the UNDER would still hit in that event.
ATP Montpellier 2024 Draw
Neither of these players should be much of a major factor in the tournament. The winner will move on to face with Lucas Pouille or Harold Mayot. These are two French wild cards in the draw.
Murray is the most proven player in the entire draw. However, his movement on the court has been rigid when I’ve watched him. I would not be surprised to see Murray in the quarterfinals but if he faces Felix Auger-Aliassime, I can’t picture the Scot winning.
Pouille might be the one to watch in this section to see if the former World No. 10 has anything in store right now. Pouille at 150 to 1 using each-way terms of 1/2, 1-2 is an okay move in my view (bet365).
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