Pavel Kotov will face Roberto Carballes Baena at the 2024 ATP Marrakech tennis tournament this weekend. This will be a semifinal match in the draw, a tournament that is played in Morroco and is known as the 2024 Grand Prix Hassan II. Kotov is a mild underdog in this upcoming clay court match, priced at +100 (bet365). Meanwhile, Carballes Baena is coming in at -125 on the moneyline. My Kotov vs Carballes Baena prediction is that the latter player will win the match.
Schedule: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Pavel Kotov vs Roberto Carballes Baena Head-to-Head Series
The Kotov vs Carballes Baena h2h is 0-1 in favor of the Spanish player. They faced one another during the 2022 season in a match that was played on clay. Carballes Baena won a three-set contest in Madrid that season 5-7, 7-6, 6-2.
These two players are similarly ranked. Kotov is the World No. 68 while his opponent is the World No. 64. On year-to-date rankings, Kotov is No. 77 while Carballes is No. 78. From a lot of perspectives, these two players look fairly evenly matched.
The Draw: Right-click/Open the link in a new tab for the draw for the 2024 Grand Prix Hassan II
Pavel Kotov’s Recent Matches and Results
Kotov is into the semifinals having not yet dropped a set in the tournament. In the last round, he had little trouble with Fabio Fognini, winning 6-1, 6-2. Kotov has faced a couple of tough sets in the draw so far. However, he appears to be well-suited to the conditions in Morroco, where it has been hot this week.
Prior to this week’s event, Kotov had gone out in his first match in Miami, Indian Wells, and Dubai. This is the first time Kotov has won more than one match in any draw since starting the season at ATP Hong Kong.
Roberto Carballes Baena’s Recent Matches and Results
Spain’s Carballes Baena dropped a set in the last round. Previously, he beat Daniel Evans in the tournament’s second round. The Spanish player did have a couple of match wins during March but has been quiet overall. He went just 1-4 in his efforts on clay back in February.
Carballes Baena did have some good results on clay in 2023. He won a challenger title in September, dropping just one set in the tournament in Seville. The fall is a time of year when most players are playing on the hard court surface. That he entered a clay-court draw shows that clay is his preferred surface.
Carballes Baena is also the defending champion in the Marrakech draw. Last season, he went 5-0 with four dropped sets en route to the final. He won all of the decisive sets very easily. That could be taken to mean that he is very good in the hot conditions in Morrocco and doesn’t fatigue as easily as his opponents. On that note, when he played Kotov in Spain, he won the last set 6-2. I would expect CB to have the energy at the end of any long match between these two players on Saturday.
Roberto Carballes Baena
Serving ability: No. 52/clay/last 52 weeks
Return-of-serve ability: No. 34/clay/last 52 weeks
Kotov vs Carballes Baena Prediction: CB to win
Bettors should be on board with Carballes Baena in this match at -125 (bet365). This match looks pretty even from some points of view but that Carballes Baena won the title in Marrakech last season looms large. Also, that he won a Challenger on clay is important, I think. It shows that he has some stamina in the late rounds still.
Carballes Baena vs Kotov prediction: Draw at the 2024 Grand Prix Hassan II
The winner of this match will be in the men’s final. The other half of the draw has Matteo Berrettini and Mariano Navone in the semifinals.
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