Britain’s Jack Draper will face Poland’s Hubert Hurkacz at the 2024 ATP Monte-Carlo tennis tournament. The upcoming match will be a first-round affair in the draw for the 2024 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters. Hurkacz is coming off of a clay court title from Estoril over the weekend. He is favored to beat Draper but the Brit is priced at just +110 (bet365), making him only a mild underdog. My Draper vs Hurkacz prediction is that the latter player will win this match.
Schedule: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Jack Draper vs Hubert Hurkacz Head-to-Head Series
The Draper vs Hurkacz h2h is 1-2 in favor of Hurkacz. All of their matches have been in recent seasons. Draper took Hurkacz out of the US Open last season in straight sets. Previously, Hurkacz claimed wins in 2022 over Draper, including a victory on clay at the Monte-Carlo Masters that season. That match was 2-1 in Hurkacz’s favor, he went 20-2 on aces to double faults, and the line score was 6-3, 6-7, 7-5.
The Draw: Right-click/Open the link in a new tab for the draw for the 2024 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters
Jack Draper’s Recent Matches and Results
Draper has not played a match on clay this season. Furthermore, his hard court results tapered off a bit in March. He went just 1-2 in the Indian Wells and Miami draws. To put his season in a nutshell, he is having the 31st-best season on year-to-date rankings.
Last season, Draper only entered three clay-court events. He went 3-3 with a win at Monte-Carlo and two more in Lyon. He does not seem to be all that interested in the surface.
Hubert Hurkacz’s Recent Matches and Results
Hurkacz went 8-1 in the sets he played in Estoril, winning the final over Pedro Martinez. The tournament did not offer a tough draw for Hurkacz. However, it was certainly a great way for the Polish player to start his 2024 clay-court season. Minimally, it provided a tune-up for the harder events to come.
Hurkacz played on the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th of April. His upcoming match against Draper will be on the 9th, meaning Hurkacz could be facing some fatigue issues. But he is the No. 7 player on year-to-date rankings, meaning his fitness level is elite. He is also playing better on clay this season than he was last season when he exited in the Estoril round of sixteen.
Serving Splits: ATP Stats
This section lists each player’s ATP stats for the last 52 weeks on the relevant surface. Bettors should look and consider the splits: how one player’s serve seems to match up against the other player’s return-of-serve.
One intriguing point with this match is that it features the best server on the ATP Tour, Hubert Hurkacz, against the best return-of-serve player on the ATP Tour, Jack Draper (for all surfaces over the last 52 weeks). At least, they are the best using the ATP’s stats. These matters are always subject to debate.
Below are the ATP’s rankings for clay over the last 52 weeks.
Jack Draper
Serving ability: 46th
Return-of-serve ability: 40th
Hubert Hurkacz
Serving ability: 3rd
Return-of-serve ability: 84th
What is interesting is that Draper drops from being the best return-of-serve player overall to 40th when you isolate clay-court results. Meanwhile, Hurkacz goes down just a little. He is the best server for all surfaces combined and drops only a little bit down to 3rd when you isolate clay.
Draper vs Hurkacz Prediction: Hurkacz to win
This match is about Hurkacz’s energy levels. He did not have that difficult of a final in Portugal on Sunday. He was able to hit 15 aces to keep the points short. Also, he beat Martinez 6-3, 6-4 to avoid the marathon kind of match that Hurkacz is known for. Furthermore, Estoril was just a four-match tournament for Hurkacz because he had a bye in the first round. The way I see it, Hurkacz is going to be fresh enough for Monte-Carlo and should handle Draper. I like the moneyline on the Polish player at -138 (bet365).
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