Novak Djokovic will face Hubert Hurkacz at the 2023 Nitto ATP Finals event this week. Hurkacz is in the tournament after Stefanos Tsitsipas withdrew, a change that actually hurts Djokovic. Both Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune got wins against the off-form Tsitsipas, a player Djokovic likely would have thumped. But the World No. 1 will need a win over the red-hot serve of Hurkacz instead. My Djokovic vs Hurkacz prediction is that this will be a competitive match. The latter looks great at long odds.
Are you looking for Djokovic vs Tsitsipas h2h?
If you are looking for Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas, then please be advised that Tsitsipas pulled out of the tournament. Hubert Hurkacz replaced him in the draw.
Schedule of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz Head-to-Head Series
The Djokovic vs Hurkacz h2h is 6-0 in Djokovic’s favor. The Serb is also 15-3 against the Polish player on sets played. Djokovic, with such stats in his favor, is coming in priced at -800 accordingly.
They did meet this season. Djokovic eliminated Hurkacz at Wimbledon in three sets. Earlier in the year, they played one another in Dubai, a match Djokovic won in straight sets. But their head-to-head series must be taken lightly. Hurkacz has played very well in the last two months and he is very dangerous to defeat Djokovic in this match.
Hurkacz won the Shanghai Masters. He also made the final in Basel and he was deep in the Paris Masters draw. His service winners (ie. aces) are off the chart. This is the top-serving player according to the ATP’s season-to-date stats. Indoor conditions on the hard-court surface are often optimal for big-serving players like Hurkacz. Shanghai, Basel, and Paris were under such conditions. They favor ace totals and Hurkacz could easily serve himself into close sets in Turin.
The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the 2023 Nitto ATP Finals
Djokovic vs Hurkacz Prediction: Competitive
The two players have just one match-up in their history in indoor/hard-court conditions. The match was played in Paris in 2021 and it is the only match in their history where the result hung in the balance at the very end. Djokovic won 7-6 in a third-set tiebreaker by the minimum two points.
It could be pointed out that Hurkacz pushed Djokovic at Wimbledon. There were two tiebreakers in the match, a set won at 5-7, and a 6-4 set. That certainly was not a one-sided match and I think Hurkacz is playing better now while Djokovic is about the same since Wimbledon.
You would only put the World No. 1 at -200 here (bet365). Certainly, +500 on Hurkacz is a good play. He is also coming into the event late while Djokovic has played competitive tennis all week, going to a third set on two occasions.
It is a little unfair that Djokovic has to play a fresh opponent who is heads-and-shoulders better than the player he is replacing. Stefanos Tsitsipas was in a major slump before ending his season. Rune and Sinner got the easy wins while Djokovic now has an uphill battle against the fresher opponent. Draw luck comes and goes but it hasn’t favored Djokovic in this event.
