Sebastian Baez will face Facundo Diaz Acosta at the 2024 ATP Rio de Janeiro tennis tournament in an upcoming match. This will be a second-round match in the 500-series tournament, which is also known as the 2024 Rio Open. Baez has not been much of a factor on tour for several months. He will be looking to change his fortunes in this clay-court event. However, Baez has drawn a tough opponent in Diaz Acosta. My Baez vs Diaz Acosta prediction is that the latter player will win a set in the match.
Schedule: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Sebastian Baez vs Facundo Diaz Acosta Head-to-Head Series
The Baez vs Diaz Acosta h2h is 3-1 in favor of Baez. They have a recent match, having played earlier this month. Baez won that match in the Cordoba draw 6-3, 6-1. It stands as the last time Diaz Acosta lost a match.
Since that result, he has won a title in Bueno Aires, a surprise title for this low-ranked player. In the first round of Rio this week, Diaz Acosta beat Stan Wawrinka in straight sets to keep the momentum going. Not only does FDA have a six-match winning streak active but he has won twelve straight sets.
Baez remains a dodgy bet on the ATP Tour. He was not good to start the season, nor was he that impressive in the late months of 2023. In exiting Bueno Aires and Cordoba earlier this month, he did so as a betting favorite each time. Last week in Buenos Aires, he lost to a +240 underdog in exiting the tournament. In Cordoba, he lost to a +200 underdog. It would not be surprising to see him lose as a moderate favorite at all in this upcoming match. He is a little overrated in the match but might be considered a small favorite because of the 3-1 head-to-head series.
The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the 2024 Rio Open
Baez vs Diaz Acosta Prediction: Diaz Acosta wins a set
I don’t think that there is a lot to analyze here. Facundo Diaz Acosta is on a rampage and he is still priced as an underdog at +162 (bet365). Despite all of the matches he has played lately, I don’t think he will be tired yet. He had a day off a couple of days ago and the first-round match against Wawrinka was a pretty easy one. Furthermore, all of Diaz Acosta’s matches have been won in straight sets lately.
But you have to factor in the bad loss to Baez a couple of weeks ago. I think FDA is better for all of the experience and confidence he has gained since that loss to Baez. Furthermore, I love betting with the 12-set winning streak here. My recommendation is to take Diaz Acosta to win a set at -200 (bet365). For those that want better odds, take him to win OVER 11.5 games at -163 (bet365). I don’t think you go with the moneyline in this match on the underdog because of their recent result and the head-to-heads.
Diaz Acosta vs Baez prediction: Draw at the 2024 Rio Open
The winner of this match will be positioned to go deeper than just the next round. This is the section of the draw where Carlos Alcaraz went out after rolling his ankle. A semifinal appearance is likely for whichever player wins this upcoming match.
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