The 2023 Nitto ATP Finals will continue on Wednesday. In group play, Carlos Alcaraz will face Andrey Rublev at the Turin tennis event. This will be a round-robin match in the tournament, the second one in the event for each player. These were the opening match losers on Monday, meaning that neither can really afford a loss on Wednesday when it comes to retaining serious hopes of advancing. It is possible to come back from 0-2 in a round-robin format involving four players, but then you need to win your last match and hope other results go exactly in your favor. Each player should be all-in for this match to keep the possibility of making the semifinals realistic. My Alcaraz vs Rublev prediction is that their competitiveness should produce competitive sets and a lot of games in the match.
Schedule: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Recent Match Results for Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz is not in the best form right now. We haven’t really seen his best tennis since July when he won the Wimbledon title. He made the Cincinnati Masters final and the US Open semifinals. But there have been no titles for Alcaraz since Wimbledon and his results have been spotty, sometimes even against much lower-ranked players.
Back at the Paris Masters, Roman Safiullin eliminated Alcaraz from the draw. Previously, the Spaniard posted a loss to Grigor Dimitrov this fall. In his opening match, in Turin he took the first set off of Alexander Zverev in a tiebreaker but then lost in three sets.
Source (ATP Website) (Right click/open link in a new tab): Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev Head-to-Head Series
The Alcaraz vs Rublev h2h is 1-0 in favor of Rublev. They played one another in Mubadala in late 2022, a match that didn’t really matter much in some ways. Rublev won in straight sets without a tiebreaker. But it is a result that should be treated lightly when previewing their upcoming match.
Rublev wasn’t great in his opening match. Daniil Medvedev beat Rublev in straight sets in what was a fairly uncompetitive match. If you were to go by the earlier results in Turin, then you would like Alcaraz better in this match. Yet, if you went by the entire post-US Open time period, Rublev’s successes in Shanghai and Paris make him the more impressive player on short-term form.
The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the 2023 Nitto ATP Finals
Alcaraz vs Rublev Prediction: OVER 22.5 games
This match is a bit of a betting dilemma. Alcaraz is priced at -188 on the moneyline (bet365). You can’t be thrilled with that betting line based on what we’ve seen out of Alcaraz for the last four months. Yet, +150 on Rublev isn’t a clear value pick either. I think that bettors should steer clear of the moneyline here and take a winner-independent market.
Both players are going to have to go all in here. They certainly have nothing to save themselves for with the end of the ATP season nearing. The next match that will really matter for these players after Turin will be at Melbourne Park in two months, at the 2024 Australian Open.
I’m thinking that this a fiercely contested match and that OVER 22.5 games played is the way to go. That’s available at -110 with Unibet sportsbook.
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