World No. 1 Iga Swiatek will face Denmark’s Caroline Wozniacki at the 2024 BNP Paribas Open tennis tournament in an upcoming quarterfinal match. Swiatek, as she so often has been this season, is priced as a very heavy favorite to win. The Polish tennis star is at -1200 on the moneyline (bet365). Meanwhile, Wozniacki is priced at +700 to win this match. My Swiatek vs Wozniacki prediction is that there will be OVER 9.5 games in the match.
Order of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Iga Swiatek vs Caroline Wozniacki Head-to-Head Series
Wozniacki only recently came out of retirement. She has not faced Swiatek too many times in the past. The Swiatek vs Wozniacki h2h is 1-0 in favor of the former player.
Their only meeting goes back to the 2019 WTA season when Swiatek won a three-set match in Toronto. Swiatek would have been 18 years old at the time of the match.
On current rankings, this is the World No. 1 vs the World No. 204. The match has some shock-value potential due to the respective rankings and the chance that Wozniacki might win. However, her talent doesn’t match her ranking. The Dane already stands to gain about 75 spots in the rankings on Monday, even if she does not beat Swiatek.
The Draw: Right-click/Open the link in a new tab for the draw for the 2024 BNP Paribas Open
Iga Swiatek’s Recent Matches and Results
Swiatek is 6-0 in Indian Wells on sets through Yulia Putintseva, Linda Noskova, and Danielle Collins. In the last round, Swiatek won 6-1, 6-2. The World No. 1 had a weak result at the Australian Open. However, she did win the Doha title since then. Swiatek also went 3-1 in Dubai before entering Indian Wells.
Caroline Wozniacki’s Recent Matches and Results
Wozniacki is 8-1 on sets played in Indian Wells. She did have to play in the opening round, something that should start to work against her. After all, she is 33 years old now. It’s not clear what energy levels she brings to the late stages of these big tournaments.
This is the first event where she has turned in a good result since the US Open. Back at Flushing Meadows, she was able to take a set off Coco Gauff in the fourth round. Wozniacki backers can perhaps ground some optimism in that.
Swiatek vs Wozniacki Prediction: OVER 9.5 games
I was thinking Swiatek at 6-3, 6-3. But I’m not thrilled with a handicap of -6.5 and odds of -120 (bet365). I am certainly not thrilled with Swiatek at -1200 on the moneyline either. When she lost in Dubai, that was to a +550 underdog in Anna Kalinskaya. The Australian Open loss was to a +900 underdog in Noskova.
I think the best bet in this match is just to bet on OVER 9.5 games in the first set. 6-4 for either player or more games hits at +200 (bet365). This is not the line score I project but for the +200 odds, I would take the chance for an extra game in the first set than what I am expecting.
Wozniacki vs Swiatek prediction: Draw at the 2024 BNP Paribas Open
The winner of this match will face either Marta Kostyuk or Anastasia Potapova. Kostyuk is a mild favorite in the match.
Additional reading: All previews for upcoming tennis matches!
