Daniil Medvedev is in the hunt for another appearance in a tournament final. He has made numerous finals over the last several months, however, the titles have eluded him lately. Mainly, it has been Jannik Sinner in his way but Sinner is not in the ATP Dubai draw this week. In an approaching semifinal, Medvedev will face Ugo Humbert at the 2024 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships. Medvedev is a -300 favorite (bet365) to win the semifinal with a possible finals opponent being Andrey Rublev. My Medvedev vs Humbert prediction is that the latter player will win at least one set. Also, I look at a tennis prop involving total breaks in this upcoming match.
Schedule: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Daniil Medvedev vs Ugo Humbert Head-to-Head Series
The Medvedev vs Humbert h2h is 1-2 in favor of the latter player. That should make anyone thinking of backing Medvedev at just -300 on the moneyline pause and think for a moment. Humbert won matches from 2021 and 2022 against Medvedev in Hamburg and at the ATP Cup respectively. They also met last season in a match from ATP Beijing.
One trend in their matches is that Humbert has won at least one set in all of their matches. They have played two tiebreakers in eight sets of tennis.
Only one set has been particularly one-sided with a 6-1 result in Medvedev’s favor in the final set that they played in Beijing. They have split both matches and sets on the hardcourt surface at 1-1 and 3-3 respectively. The head-to-head is limited but there is some parity between these two players. Furthermore, Humbert is a better player right now than he was at the times of all the other previous matches.
The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the 2024 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
Daniil Medvedev’s Recent Tennis Results
Medvedev won his last match in straight sets over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Previously, the Russian dropped a set to Lorenzo Sonego but, thus far, Medvedev is 6-1 on sets played in the Dubai draw. This week’s tournament is the only event that Medvedev has entered this season except for the 2024 Australian Open. Tennis fans will recall that he lost in the final to Sinner at Melbourne Park.
Ugo Humbert’s Recent Tennis Results
Humbert has gone 6-2 in his sets so far this week in Dubai. In the last round, he knocked out the best server on the ATP Tour, Hubert Hurkacz. Earlier this week, Humbert defeated tricky veterans Gael Monfils and Andy Murray. Last week in Doha, Humbert went 1-1 in the draw, losing to Monfils. His season highlight came early in February when Humbert won the Marseille title, beating Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov in the final. The French player has generally been a tough player to eliminate from a draw and Dubai has not been an exception to that.
Medvedev vs Humbert Prediction: Humbert wins a set
What stands out the most with this match is that Dimitrov has a losing record to Humbert but the Russian is still priced as a large -300 favorite (bet365). I can see why people would think that he should be a strong favorite based on his performance at the Australian Open, the only tournament that we’ve seen the Russian in this year before Dubai.
However, let’s not forget that Medvedev lost ten sets of tennis in that draw. That’s a lot for a player who made the final. It was not just the late-round talent who took sets off of Medvedev but the early-rounders as well, such as Nuno Borges and Emil Ruusuvuori. Humbert’s winning record against Medvedev combined with the Russia’s penchant for dropping sets so far this season should have bettors happy to take Humbert to win at least one set at -125 in this match (bet365).
Tennis prop bet: Humbert vs Medvedev
Another thing that stands out in this match is that Humbert is going from beating the best server on the ATP Tour, Hubert Hurkacz, to playing the best return-of-serve player on the ATP Tour, Medvedev. The playing styles of the two players are at opposite ends of the spectrum with one another.
I would be looking at some breaks of serves in this match. With Humbert coming off of a match against Hurkacz, Medvedev’s serve won’t look like the missiles he, Humbert, just faced. But I like Medvedev to find his way into Humbert’s service games as well. Take OVER 3.5 total breaks of serve in this match at -125 (bet365).
Humbert vs Medvedev prediction: Draw at the 2024 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
The winner of this match might face Andrey Rublev in the final. However, he has to win against Alexander Bublik in their semifinal first.
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