Daniil Medvedev has been in good form at the 2023 ATP Beijing event this week. He will face Alexander Zverev in the semifinals of the tournament, which is also known as the 2023 China Open. A spot in the final is at stake as well as a chance to claim a 500-series title, which affords 500 ranking points to the winner for a year. My Medvedev vs Zverev prediction is that the former player will win this match and advance to the tournament final.
Medvedev vs Zverev Head-to-Head Series
These two players have a long history against one another. In the ATP’s head-to-head history, Medvedev has a 9-7 series lead. It’s a head-to-head series that could be broken down into details. To summarize, there is a fair amount of parity between these two players.
Zverev won their most recent match, which came in Cincinnati this season. Zverev also won the last match that the two played on the hard court surface indoors (2021 ATP Finals). These guys have only played on a non-hard-court surface twice, both of which were clay-court victories for Medvedev. When you adjust those off, they are 7-7 in hard-court matches.
Zverev cannot be backed
But the best insight with this match isn’t their head-to-head series. You would expect Medvedev to beat Zverev in this upcoming contest. The German has labored through the first three rounds so far this week. He has lost a set in each of his first three matches. Zverev has, in fact, done quite well in avoiding an early-round upset.
The big problem with backing Zverev right now is that he played in a tournament last week as well. He won four matches last week en route to the Chengdu title. Three of those four matches also went the distance.
He has really been walking a tightrope over the last couple of weeks. Seven matches in that short of a time frame is actually quite a few for a player to participate in.
Zverev opened his Chengdu draw on September 23rd. His match against Medvedev will be his eighth match in just eleven days — which is way too much. If Zverev had some matches that were more routine then maybe he could still be backed. But for the match at hand you would want Zverev way out at +500 to feel good backing him, odds that just aren’t available.
Medvedev vs Zverev Prediction: Medvedev Advances
Schedule of Play: Stadium start times and match times
Medvedev, before this week, was idle since the US Open loss. He should be very fresh, at least relative to Zverev. These two guys have played tons of close sets and close matches in the past. You would expect the Russian to have way more energy if that happens again in the Beijing semifinals. Take Medvedev in this match at moneyline odds of -225 with bet365. This match will take place in wee hours of the morning for North American time zones.
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