The 2023 FIBA World Cup will start later this month. The tournament runs from August 25th to September 10th, 2023. The favorite for the event is the United States. They are priced at shorter-than-even odds in a field of 32 teams (bet365 has them at -111 in outrights). They are the only team that can be taken to win this tournament. My 2023 FIBA World Cup prediction is that the Americans win the event comfortably.
2023 FIBA World Cup Prediction: Kerr outcoaches field
Team USA’s roster need not be picked over too much. Everyone knows that when they take an international tournament seriously, the roster will be filled with significant NBA talent. The worst player on the team is probably Bobby Portis or Austin Reaves. Reaves started 22 games last season for a team that made the conference finals. Portis started 22 games last season for a 58-win team, the Milwaukee Bucks.
Basically, Team USA will be able to play all of their players in any game. That bodes really well for fatigue management in the event. As for questions of chemistry, they have the leadership that they need.
Team USA isn’t quite invincible. However, they could easily be put at -300 against the field for this tournament. The other teams in the competition do have NBA players on their rosters. But Team USA is the only contender with an excellent coach. Steve Kerr, winner of four NBA titles as an NBA Head Coach, is in charge of Team USA. The other contenders just don’t measure up for a bench boss.
Team Canada Lost Jamal Murray
Take Team Canada, for instance. They were at +750 with bet365 earlier this week. However, they suffered a setback when Jamal Murray withdrew from the event. A country like Canada needs all of its best players to show up for a tournament like this one in order to have a chance to win. As their talent dilutes, it becomes harder to picture them winning, especially with the Head Coach that they have.
Jordi Fernandez coaches Team Canada, a coach that most NBA fans won’t be too familiar with. He’s an assistant coach with the Sacramento Kings and a work in progress. If it comes down to a chess match, Fernandez won’t outduel Steve Kerr. If Fernandez could do that, then he’d probably already have a head coaching gig in the NBA. Canada has recently drifted out to +1000 in the futures market for the event, making them fourth favorites.
France and Australia are Among the Contenders
France is the second favorite at +750. The team is loaded with a mix of Euroballers and NBA players. Euroballers aren’t necessarily bad players, however, they are often missing something vital. Typically, they are missing height or their tall players have little outside shooting abilities. Vincent Collet might be a good coach but he doesn’t have the chess pieces to work with.
Australia is the third favorite at +900. They have a fair number of NBA players. But a lot of them are past their best basketball. Joe Ingles and Patty Mills are both on the team, players whose best basketball is behind them. Josh Giddey is the best player on the team but he has no supporting cast. Their head coach only has NBL plaudits.
Final Thoughts: Live and Die with Team USA
The only way teams like Canada, France, or Australia win this tournament is if they shorten the bench against Team USA and get amazing shooting. But Team USA should be so comfortable in the early going, that they should have tons of energy in the late rounds.
There is no way Team USA goes out early in this tournament. They are in a group with Jordan, Greece, and New Zealand. Those three teams combine for one NBA player and it’s not Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Americans just won’t be tested early, they are -2500 to win their group, and they have a deep bench. They will enter the late rounds at basically 100% for energy levels. Back the Americans in this event, even at shorter-than-even odds. The depth is there and Steve Kerr just isn’t going to screw this up. My recommendation is Team USA at -111 in outrights.
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