The year-end event for the ATP Tour will be starting soon. The 2023 Nitto ATP Finals will run from Turin, Italy between November 12th and November 19th. There are not a ton of matches in the tournament. However, each match will see the top players from the men’s tour collide. Novak Djokovic is the favorite to win the event, the World No. 1 player and winner of three of the Grand Slams from the last season.
Betting Odds To Win Outright: 2023 ATP World Tour Finals (bet365)
- Novak Djokovic +137
- Carlos Alcaraz +350
- Jannik Sinner +500
- Daniil Medvedev +600
- Stefanos Tsitsipas +1400
- Andrey Rublev +1400
- Alexander Zverev +2000
- Holger Rune +2000
Tournament Format
If you followed the women’s tour finals earlier this month, then the format is very similar. The top eight players for ranking points during the 2023 ATP season are all admitted into this event. They are firstly subdivided into two groups of four. Following a round-robin stage, the top two players from each group enter the semifinals and then the final.
The Green Group will feature Novak Djokovic, the betting favorite to win the 2023 finals. He will share his group with Jannik Sinner, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Holger Rune. The other group is designated “The Red Group.” It will have Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev, and Alexander Zverev.
True Favorites: Novak Djokovic tops
The betting favorites are listed above. However, for true favorites, I would diverge from the betting favorites a little. Firstly, Novak Djokovic should be considered the true favorite. After that, I don’t think Carlos Alcaraz is worthy of the second favorite.
Alcaraz did have the second-best season but he is not really the man of the moment. Since winning Wimbledon, he has not had a premium result. Even in the post-US Open events, he was generally disappointed. It is not clear as to whether or not he is motivated right now.
My true favorites would be like this:
- Novak Djokovic
- Jannik Sinner
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Andrey Rublev
- Daniil Medvedev
- Alexander Zverev
- Stefanos Tsitsipas
- Holger Rune
My True Favorites Explained
Sinner won the ATP Beijing title and the ATP Vienna title since the US Open. At the Paris Masters, he withdrew but the rest will have done him well. I expect him and Djokovic to advance out of the Green Group and to play in the men’s final.
Rublev has been playing very well lately as well. He had a championship point at the Shanghai Masters. Furthermore, he went to the semifinals of the Paris Masters where he lost to Djokovic in a very competitive match. I have slightly more confidence in him than Medvedev at this point.
Medvedev himself was disappointing after the US Open men’s final. He never played particularly poorly but did not claim a title. Sinner had Medvedev’s number in both Vienna and Beijing.
Tsitsipas seemed to pick up his game in late October and early November. However, against a field as talented as the one in Turin, flicking a light switch for good tennis form to “on” won’t work. He has too many losses to low-ranked players to believe in heading into this event.
The last player to mention is Holger Rune. He did hire Boris Becker recently. That makes him a sleeper to advance to the semifinals. But Rune has not beaten anyone else in the field since the Rome Masters six months ago. That’s mainly because he isn’t winning enough matches to get deep into the draws, often falling to much lower-ranked players. If Rune opens his tournament with a win, you might entertain taking him as that would hint that Becker is having his effect.
I plan to preview all matches for this event with betting recommendations. The tournament will start on Sunday with Jannik Sinner vs Stefanos Tsitsipas. I am sure I will go with Sinner at -200 for those looking to bet this match early.
Further reading: See all the tennis previews!
